Thu, 01 Mar 2007 15:36:5
Patricia Shehan - All Headline News Staff Writer
(AHN) - Health experts are being recruited from around the world to place bets based on their opinion about the future predictions of the spread of the bird flu, according to an AP report.
The potential for a worldwide epidemic exists from the spread of the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu now being reported in humans as well as birds.
The University of Iowa Avian Influenza Prediction Market is using this unique format to help better predict the future outcome in a timely manner before the reports are generated after the facts.
The expert opinions from worldwide public health officials are being sought from at least 100 epidemiologists, veterinarians and other experts in the medical field for the two-year project being funded by a donation of almost $250,000 from the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.
"Farmers have used futures markets for decades to make decisions about what crops to plant. We're just borrowing that concept to help people in public health and health care make decisions about the future," said Dr. Phil Polgreen, according to an AP report.
Dr. Polgreen is an assistant professor of medicine at the University of Iowa who helped to create this project.
This is not the first project such as this one at the University of Iowa, although some are certainly controversial. There is no major financial gain involved.
He noted that public health experts won't be gambling their own money, so opportunities for financial gain are extremely limited.
"This is an experiment. The hypothesis is we'll be able to harness lots of people with different viewpoints and information, and we know sooner when something is going to happen than if we wait for a report," said Dr. Larry Madoff, editor of ProMed's editor, according to the AP.
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